Comprehensive Analysis of Iran's Economic Cycle: 2017-2019

This report provides a detailed analysis of Iran's economic cycle, focusing on its GDP growth, unemployment rate, and inflation trends. The introduction establishes the context of economic cycles and the report's objectives, followed by a thesis statement outlining the analysis of Iran's economic performance. The main body assesses the business cycle position, including historical and current real GDP trends, the strengths and weaknesses of the Iranian economy, and the contribution of various sectors. The report also examines unemployment, including its historical and current trends, as well as the types of unemployment prevalent in the economy. Furthermore, it assesses inflation, reviewing its historical trends and current position, and identifying inflationary pressures. The report uses data from 2017-2019 to analyze the economic situation. The conclusion summarizes the key findings, highlighting the mixed and transitional nature of the Iranian economy and its efforts towards economic growth. The report includes references to scholarly articles and online sources used for data and analysis, and also includes illustrations to support the findings.

IRAN ECONOMIC CYCLE

TABLE OF CONTENTS
INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................................................1
THESIS STATEMENT...................................................................................................................1
MAIN BODY...................................................................................................................................1
Business cycle position....................................................................................................................1
a.) Assessing business cycle position and historical real GDP...................................................1
b.) Assessment of problems and success of unemployment.......................................................3
C.) Assessment of inflation.........................................................................................................4
CONCLUSION................................................................................................................................5
REFERENCES................................................................................................................................6

INTRODUCTION
Economic cycle is considered as natural fluctuation which occurred in economy between
the period of growth and recession. In the present essay, Iran's economic cycle has selected in
order to analyse its GDP growth during the year (Dargahi and Khameneh, 2019). Economic
growth of the Iran is expected to contrast in 2019 because of its Oil sector.
THESIS STATEMENT
 To analyse the GDP growth of Iran economic cycle by comparing standard of living and
regions.
 To assess the unemployment and inflation management of the nation.
MAIN BODY
Business cycle position
a.) Assessing business cycle position and historical real GDP
 Historical trend of real GDP
During the year 2017, GDP of the Iran was worth 439.51 billion. It is analysed that its GDP
value representing 0.71% in the economy of world. From the year 1965-2017, it is measured that
he average GDP of Iran was 175.13 USD Billion. During year 2012, its GDP rate was at peak
point that is 598.85 USD and it is low at 1965 which is at 6.20 USD.
Thus, according to the Trading Economics global macro model, its analyst expect that
GDP of Iran expected to be 400.00 USD billion by the end of this quarter.
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 Current business cycle position
In IRAN the biggest sector of the economy are services which overall contribute 51% in GDP. In
service sector also important market segments are real estate and professional services which
mainly contribute 14% of total GDP. Trade restaurants and hotels are contributing almost 12% of
total GDP. Manufacturing and mining are contributing 13%. Graph which represent current
position is as follows-
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Illustration 1: GDP analysis
(source: Iran GDP, 2019)

 Strength and weakness of economy
Iran is the 18th largest economy of the world which has the population of 80 million people. It
has highly educated population. One of the statistics of Iran shows that it puts same number of
engineers graduates every year as UK. It has the largest hydrocarbon reserve in the world and its
two-third of population is below the age of 35.
It has several weaknesses such as investor protection, minority investor rights and
contracts are not well managed.
b.) Assessment of problems and success of unemployment
 Historical trend of unemployment rate
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 Current trend
Its unemployment rate has been decreased in fourth quarter of 2018 that is from 12.20%. Iran has
average unemployment rate from 2001-2018 that is 11.71%. Thus, according to the end of this
quarter expected rate would be 12.70%
 Types of unemployment in economy
Main reason of unemployment in economy is regarding the struggle in meeting financial need
due to challenges like social consequences, increase in average age of marriage and slow
population growth.
C.) Assessment of inflation
 Historical trend
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Illustration 2: Historical trend
(source: Iran Unemployment Rate, 2019)

 Current position
Its inflation rate has jumped to 39.9% during the month of November 2018. Since, 2013 this rate
has been considered as highest inflation rate.
 Inflationary pressure
Increase in government spending is the main inflationary pressure because of which limited
sources are available in the country.
CONCLUSION
From the above essay it is summarised that Iran economy is mixed and transition. It is
eighteenth largest economy on the world in terms of purchasing power parity. Thus, the essay
has been explaining its unemployment, inflationary and GDP position and it is identified that
country is achieving economic growth in each year.
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Illustration 3: Historical trend Iran
(source: Iran Inflation rate, 2019)

REFERENCES
Books and Journals
Dargahi, H. and Khameneh, K.B., 2019. Energy intensity determinants in an energy-exporting
developing economy: Case of Iran. Energy. 168. pp.1031-1044.
Online
Iran GDP. 2019. [Online]. Available through <https://tradingeconomics.com/iran/gdp>
Iran inflation rate. 2019. [Online]. Available through
<https://tradingeconomics.com/iran/inflation-cpi>
Iran Unemployment Rate. 2019. [Online]. Available through
<https://tradingeconomics.com/iran/unemployment-rate>
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